- Casper Ruud is a -200 favorite over Denis Shapovalov in the ATP odds for their Italian Open Quarterfinal on Friday, May 13
- Canada’s Shapovalov upset 10-time Italian Open champ Rafael Nadal in the Round of 16
- All of the Italian Open ATP odds, picks, predictions and best bets for this match are in the following story
Denis Shapovalov is invoking the Ric Flair theory at the ATP Italian Open and Casper Ruud is the next one standing in his path.
It was the Nature Boy who coined the phrase to be the best you have to beat the best. And in the Round of 16, Shapovalov slayed the giant of clay court tennis when he took out 10-time Italian Open champion Rafael Nadal.
Despite this impressive triumph, consider oddsmakers unimpressed. They’re establishing Ruud as the -200 favorite to win this Italian Open quarterfnal in the ATP odds.
Shapovalov vs Ruud ATP Italian Open Odds
|Denis Shapovalov||+160||+2.5 (-105)||O 22.5 (-120)|
|Casper Ruud||-200||-2.5 (-125)||U 22.5 (-110)|
Odds as of May 12th at Caesars Sportsbook.
This match is set to get underway at approximately 9am ET on Friday, May 13. Broadcasting all the action will be the Tennis Channel.
In the opening ATP odds for this event, Ruud was the seventh betting choice to win the ATP Italian Open at +1400. Bettors could access a +4500 betting line on Shapovalov winning the tournament.
History On Shapovalov’s Side
For newcomers to betting on tennis, one of the tennis betting basics tends to be to play Nadal when he’s playing on clay. Even with his Round of 16 loss to Shapovalov, the Spaniard is still 69-8 all-time when playing in the Italian Open.
Here’s another betting trend that kicks in on those rare occasions when Nadal falls on a clay surface. That would be to ride the guy who beat him.
Shapovalov solves the Rafa riddle 🙌
— ATP Tour (@atptour) May 12, 2022
Since 2018, Nadal has lost eight matches on a clay surface, The player to defeat him has ended up reaching the final in all eight of those events. Five of them won the tournament.
However, the last time this betting trend failed was at the 2017 Italian Open. Dominic Thiem beat Nadal in the quarterfinals. Thiem then lost to Novak Djokovic in the semifinals.
Denis Shapovalov Betting Trends
Entering their Round of 16 match, Shapovalov was 1-4 lifetime in his career against world #4 Nadal. He lost to the Spaniard in the Round of 16 at last year’s Italian Open. He’d come close to winning that time, though. Shapovalov had Nadal at match point twice prior to losing in a third-set tie break.
When the Canadian fell 1-6 in the first set, it appeared that history would be repeating itself. Nadal ended up winning 74% of service points and 64% of total points in the opening set.
🇨🇦Denis Shapovalov advances to the Italian Open quarterfinals, defeating Rafael Nadal in three sets 1-6, 7-5, 6-2.
It is the first time Shapo defeats Rafa on clay.
— Lukas Weese (@Weesesports) May 12, 2022
However, taking advantage of the fact that Nadal was hampered by a left foot injury, Shapovalov rallied for 7-5, 6-2 victories to take the match in three sets.
Shapovalov won five of 13 break points. He broke Nadal’s service three times. The Canadian captured 17 of the last 20 points in the match. World #16 Shapovalov, the 13th seed, advances to his sixth ATP Masters 1000 quarterfinal.
Casper Ruud Betting Trends
The #5 seed, Ruud appears to be rounding into form after a rough start to the clay court season. The Norwegian lost in the Round of 16 at Monte Carlo and in the quarterfinals at Barcelona and Munich.
Since dropping a 6-7(4-7) first second to Botic van de Zandschulp in the Round of 32, Ruud has captured 24 of the next 37 games. He easily dispatched American Jenson Brooksby 6-3, 6-4 in the Round of 16.
The 2020 Italian Open semi-finalist is into his eighth ATP Masters 1000 quarter-final.
Ruud counted five aces while winning 86% (36-of-42) of his first-service points of a match that lasted one hour and 36 minutes.
Ruud vs Shapovalov Odds & Prediction
Ruud and Shapovalov have met just once previously in their career. That was also on clay in the 2021 Geneva final and Ruud was a 7-6(8-6), 6-4 winner.
Ruud vs Shapovalov Stats
|10||ATP Final Appearances||4|
|85%||Service Games Won||86%|
|26%||Return Games Won||17%|
|62%||Break Points Saved||70%|
Shapovalov is 27-21 (.563) all-time on clay surfaces. Ruud is a much more impressive 84-34 (.712) on clay.
But Ruud has never beat Nadal in a clay-court match. So there’s that.
Pick: Denis Shapovalov +160; Shapovalov 2-1 (+440)