The NYT Needle: How We Forecast Elections | NYT News
The NYT Needle: How We Forecast Elections | NYT News The New York Times needle some people love it and some people hate it. It’S been the inspiration behind many pissy tweets and election coverage. Hot takes now. The needle is back for a 6th time. Nate Cohn one of its creators he’s an expert numbers cruncher who covers polling and demographics at the Times the needle is an election night forecast. So it looks at the votes that and counted, and it looks it was both our left and estimated. The final result will be people spent weeks, trying think of what the right way was to communicate our forecast and weather was compelling the people they. Obviously it’s resonated in some interesting, and you know I don’t know about, namely the needle, pointing from Clinton over to Trump. As the night wore on it’s worth, noting by the way that when I talk about people, I mainly talking about liberals, I think that Republicans have a very different memory of the needle election-night. Some of what I think, Clifford orji, maybe more precisely the intention behind that – was to show the uncertainty that Shirley played out on Election night in 2016 and we’re trying to come up with ways to communicate that in the way that was a little bit more viscera. Then just a probability, how does it work? The data is gathered from mainly from the Associated Press and every County in the country, except in Alaska, which also reports, as one state tells you, the number of presents that have been counted. It says the tabulated, including Mike, and we match that data to our pre-election expectations for every County in the country’s going to vote. That’S informed based on the results that we’ve seen so far early and night. It’S also based on our projection, for we expected for the county, and it’s all based on what the result in other Counties have taught us about in a weather. Democrats Republicans might be expected that there better or worse than the initial.. I think that there is something about like the clarity of the way, the needle moves and points it has a decisive feel to it. The visual gives it much more strength than the number 11.. I think a lot of cases Nate Cohn, who covers polling and demographics for The New York Times, describes what informs our election night forecast tool known as the needle.
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