US economy: The good, the bad and the ugly
US economy: The good, the bad and the ugly Okay, Dallas down 55, it had been up 97. Let’S show you the money, languages, the FED wrapped its two-day meeting and its statement today saying business. Investment growth has moderated from the rapid Pace. It’S so early in the year. That wasn’t so. We put this on the screen because I markets were fine until that came out. So that’s the next meeting. There is a 71 % chance of a quarter. Yesterday it was at 80, so we’re down 9 % of points. We have the defender a divided Congress, us tariffs on Chinese Imports, kicking up to 25 % on January 1st and and who knows what else portfolio? What’S the good? What’S the bad, the ugly we bringing Wells, Fargo, senior, Economist, Mark and Andy Brenner, not Alliance Security, you’re, fat and you’re ugly? The good is that the news said it was pretty well maintained by the Republicans. So you have a split Congress and the president negotiate with Congress, and now a divided Congress have some give-and-take and we do think that infrastructure will pass as far as the bad. You still have the tires out there. The Chinese economy is not good. He’Ll Terrace are going to start to really start to increase prices in the US and, as far as the ugly goes Liz call about the FED no question about it called the FED clowns. Would you go that far when she is having on the market? This Is 50 billion a month or 600 billion a year. It is really hurting the markets, and if you look at work, I think we’re going to see significantly higher interest rates. Good bad ugly as strong labor markets is broadening is impacting more more parts of the country you have to do that in the next year, which is what they have tensions and I think they’re forgetting that enhance forward guidance was. It was an additional form of easy when rates were were low, it’s in town additional form of tightening now that their rates are going up. In addition to reducing the balance sheet and raising rates, ji, Chang ping of China on the screen G20 November 30th – we’re going. I will be there any. What do you need to hear that will make you feel better about this whole situation? It was politics that the elections are passed, let’s come to negotiation agreement with China and we really want something positive to be coming out of there. And if we, if we see it, we could ever very nice year and rally in equities it’s more of the same, and I think it’s really going to be hurtful to the economy. What we have seen here at countdown or war boom, the markets, gyrating and moving Andy, just reference that we could have a great rally for equities. If there is a deal, what do you see for equities? What would be behind us and there’s no surprises in it? Investigations – and I don’t know that you’ll get that indication before the end of the year. I think that would that would up in the markets a little bit. We don’t really have to have any any really concrete agreements on trade if we could just dial it back. A little bit and say hi not going to go through with with more retaliatory tariff 3.235 for the 10-year yield. Are you worried about that or or does that look like business as usual, I am horrified as to what the interest rates are going to be doing with all the supply that’s coming to market with the lack of deficit relief, and that that we see any amount Of corporate Supply coming this is this will be the high close of the year and in the 326, is the high Prince of the air. I know you remember when, when brakes were 18 %, when people were buying homes in the 80s, but right now 2019, I don’t think that’s a good idea on your your suspenders Mark and Andy you’ve got a great time with dollar bills on it. NatAlliance Securities Andy Brenner and Wells Fargo senior economist Mark Vitner discuss the pros and cons of the U.S. economy.